Throne Speech showdown (part 1)

As discussed in a previous post, the Harper Conservatives will read a throne speech this fall, in hopes of launching a new parliamentary session and breathing some life into their otherwise stale legislative agenda. But because throne speeches are considered “confidence” motions in the House, the opposition parties will have the opportunity to bring down the government and call an election.

The big question: will they do it? Will they pull down Harper’s temple?

Now, I argued previously that an election was likely, and that there was “a good chance we’ll be going to the polls this fall.” I based this view on the fact that I saw two issues (the revised Clean Air Act and the scheduled withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2009) as being intractable between the Liberals and the Conservatives. I thought it was likely that the Liberals would put forward a vote of no-confidence.

And indeed, this could still happen. But a lot has happened since that last posting: the Conservatives stole a seat from the Bloc in the Quebec by-elections; the Liberals likewise lost the bedrock riding of Outremont to an NDP candidate; NDP leader Jack Layton and Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe have signalled the withdrawal of their support for the government by making laughable demands for the Throne speech; and Dion’s camp has been careful not to make any non-negotiable demands whatsoever, thus signalling a Liberal willingness to negotiate a Throne Speech that they can support.

Whew! So in light of all this, my original analysis appears overly simplistic and in need of some… rethinking.

So rethink it I shall! Call me a flip-flopper. But as they say in South Park: “changing your mind is a Canadian custom that we hold quite dear,” and one that I feel compelled to exercise. And in fact, from this day forward, the freedom to change your mind will be cemented as a bedrock right of Frökspoke: unalterable, inalienable and unapologetically utilized!

So here we go: how are the parties likely to respond to the Throne speech? And are the Conservatives going to be gunning for an election? I want to briefly take the perspective of each party to determine how they are likely to vote. Let’s have a look!

The NDP

The NDP actually have enough members to form a government-saving coalition with the Conservatives. But I wouldn’t worry about it: Layton has demanded the immediate withdrawal of Canadian troops from Afghanistan. And that dog just ain’t gonna hunt, as they say in, umm, Manitoba. Plus, the NDP is riding high after its Outremont pickup, and is likely gunning for an election to make inroads in Quebec and capitalize on Liberal weakness. So I think it’s highly likely that the NDP will vote against the Throne Speech.

The Bloc

The Bloc have more than enough seats to save the government. But from the sounds of things, they don’t intend to: Duceppe has “unveiled a list of five ‘non-negotiable’ conditions for the Bloc to support the Throne Speech, including eliminating all federal spending powers in provincial jurisdictions and complying with the Kyoto Protocol's tough greenhouse-gas-emission reduction targets.”

As tall orders go, this one could play college basketball. And Harper has already publicly criticized Duceppe for making “reckless” demands. So what we can garner from this is that the Bloc is interpreting their bi-election defeat as a message that they need to be tougher on Harper’s Conservatives. They might be right, but they might be taking a bit of a gamble here: Quebec appears pretty soft for the Conservatives these days. And even if Duceppe can stem the Conservative tide in Quebec, the Conservatives could win a majority overall. This would, of course, weaken the Bloc's bargaining position.

At any rate, Duceppe has chosen to take a hard line. I thus consider it highly likely that the Bloc will vote against the Throne Speech.

Oh boy, I know you're on the edge of your seat, and we haven’t even gotten to the juicy parties yet! But it’s late, and I have early-morning class tomorrow. So that analysis will have to wait for another day.

To be continued…