U.S. Senator Fred Thompson announced yesterday that he will kick off his campaign for the Republican Presidential nomination on September 6th. This is not quite a declaration of his candidacy, but there has been no doubt for months that Thompson will run for the nomination. Even though Thompson is seen by many Republicans as a "Reagan-esque," strong-on-values candidate in a field of social liberals (Rudy Giuliani) Mormons (Mitt Romney) and wafflers (John McCain), and even though Thompson consistently places second or third in national and primary polls, he has not yet declared his candidacy for the nomination.
And you know, I can't explain why not. What is Thompson waiting for? In July there was real buzz about him: his celebrity, his appeal to bedrock values-voters, his polling numbers, etc. And yet, the only news we've been getting from his campaign has been tales of numerous staff departures. July came, and went, and still no declaration. He inexplicably decided to sit-out the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa earlier this month, where he would have been sure to take down a second-place showing or better. Instead, Mike Huckabee, a previously lifeless candidate, scooped up the second place spot behind Mitt Romney (due to a lack of participation from any other viable candidates), thus injecting the Huckabee campaign with buzz, media attention, and new life.
And apparently Fred's numbers have started to dwindle a bit. From the Fix:
...after a month of negative press centered around a number of staff departures, Thompson finds that momentum blunted somewhat. The inside-the-Beltway crowd -- in truth, never Thompson believers -- seem to be convinced that his moment has passed. Polling, both national and in key early states, shows Thompson in the game but falling slightly from his numbers in mid to late June and early July.
Has Fred missed his moment? No: he remains a powerful candidate, and one to watch closely. But I think he ranks third place now, behind Giuliani and Romney, whereas in July he might have tied Giuliani for second place. He's lost some momentum, and the Thompson campaign should be kicking itself for not striking when the iron was hot.
Friday, August 31, 2007
Has Fred missed his moment?
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2 comments:
Ray,
I confess I haven’t being paying all that much attention to the Republican primary (after watching them “debate” their views evolution any interest I had dissipated quickly). But I think one reason Thompson hasn’t declared is to avoid an early, McCain-esq, implosion. With such a long campaign there is significant danger for candidates who peak too early. In some ways I think this is the same strategy Dion is currently employing: bide your time and wait for the others to make (inevitable) mistakes.
The danger of this strategy is, of course, that you miss your timing. I think you make a good case that this is what has happened to Thompson, though it is too early to tell for sure.
Hi Warren, thanks for posting! Yes, the campaign trail will be long, and candidates need to worry about peaking early, especially if the driving force of their campaign is novelty or personality-based (cough- Obama). But I think the reason Thompson hasn't declared is simple campaign disorganization. He missed his chance to lock up a second place position when registered Republicans were toying with the idea of him being a major player. But then he waited, and waited, and lost the public eye, and I think this delay has cost him the second place spot, at least in the short-run.
Of course, all he needs to do is find a way to make headlines, then instantly declare, and he'll be back and running second again. I don't think Giuliani has it in him to keep running in the top-two.
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